What the forecast's words are
Every forecast line stands on a basis, which says what the forecast was built from, and carries a confidence, which says how firmly to hold it. The basis words are Own record, Borrowed method, From an analog and Fallback method; the confidence words are High, Medium, Low and New. On Demand forecasting a line prints at most one of these as a chip, and only where there is something to say: Watch closely and New item for the two confidence grades that need a look, From an analog and Borrowed method for the two bases that are not the line's own measured record. Own record, High and Medium print nothing, because the good case is quiet. No line names its forecast method.
How Tightly decides a line's basis word
The Monday re-score tries every method on each line's own history and picks the one that missed least; Forecast methods and the Monday re-score says how. Where that ran and scored, the basis is Own record: the line's own sales, read by the method chosen for it. Where it could not, because the line has sold for less than about 65 weeks or no method scored, the line keeps the method chosen for its selling pattern and still forecasts from its own sales; that is Borrowed method, a method and not a defect, since a style that sells for one season cannot reach the history a re-score needs. Where the line has never sold, every number comes from past products that sold like it, and the basis is From an analog. Where the chosen method could not run this time, the best other method measured for the line, or a moving average, served the figure; the engine's word is Fallback method, and no line prints it. A line written before Tightly recorded how its method was chosen prints no basis word rather than guessing.
Confidence is graded on every sync from the line's own sales history; Confidence as a word says how.
The words on a forecast line
| Word | Where it prints | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Watch closely | Review, before the flags | confidence Low, with the reasons on hover |
| New item | Review, before the flags | confidence New; forecasts firm up after about eight weeks of selling |
| From an analog | beside the line's name | no record of its own; the number came from a past product that sells like it |
| Borrowed method | beside the line's name | this line's own sales, read by a method chosen for lines like it |
| Overridden | beside the line's name | a period's figure was typed by hand as a Manual forecast |
| Not checked | the Review cell | the attention flags were not scored for this line |
| Provenance not served | beside the line's name | the reading did not carry where this forecast came from, so nothing says it was its own record |
| Not read | the comparison in the head | the performance read did not answer; Try again is in the Forecast performance drawer |
A line carries one chip at most, the most urgent first: Watch closely, then New item, then From an analog, then Borrowed method. The two basis chips say what they mean on hover, the second sentence joining the first where the line is still selling:
This forecast comes from an analog, a past product that sells like this one, rather than from this item’s own sales record. It is still selling, so a record of its own is building. This item forecasts from its own sales; the method it uses was borrowed rather than contested.
Own record and Fallback method are the engine's words and never a chip. A run that did not finish, or rewrote only part of the book, is said once by the engine's own sentence, under Forecast status in the Forecast performance drawer.
What you can do about a line's words
A line reading From an analog is forecast from the analogs Tightly chose for it; on Tightly Pro, Analogs is where they are confirmed or changed, and the line reads from the new analog after the next run. A line reading Watch closely is one to check by hand before you buy against it; its hover names why. Borrowed method needs nothing from you: the line's record is building wherever it still sells. If you know better than any of them, type a Manual forecast and save it with a reason. Open a row for its Forecast drivers, the reasons behind the number, and Review the analog where one stands in. See The forecasting engine, Forecast methods and the Monday re-score, Confidence as a word and Manual forecast.
Glossary line
The forecast's basis words, Own record, Borrowed method, From an analog, Fallback method, and its confidence words, High, Medium, Low, New.