What a Manual forecast is
A Manual forecast is a figure a planner types over the system's for one line, one channel and one period on Demand forecasting. Each period cell stacks the planned figure, the System forecast, the Manual forecast and Actual. Where a Manual forecast is set it becomes the planned figure, and the line carries Overridden beside its name. The System forecast stays underneath: the cell's hover reads Overridden by hand with the system's number beside it. It changes the figure, never the forecast method.
Where a Manual forecast can be typed
Type into the Manual forecast of a period on a variant line, in Units, for the current period or a later one. A cell cannot be typed where the period has closed, where a declared event locks it (Open the event, on the cell's menu, opens that event), where the line is a successor, in Revenue, or while the grid is grouped by product. To change several lines, select them and use Adjust forecast…. Set units applies one figure to one period on the selected lines, or every line matching the filters. Increase by % and Decrease by % apply to selected lines and periods; the preview shows the calculated baseline, proposed units and skipped periods. The percentage replaces the manual figure using the System forecast as its basis. It does not compound an earlier override or remain a rule for future recalculations. Closed, event-locked, successor or missing-forecast periods are skipped as applicable.
Save with a reason
A typed figure is saved only with a reason. Save with a reason opens six, and pressing one is the save:
Event or promo not in the system · Price change · Supply or stock constraint · New launch or replacement · Known one-off · My judgement
A note is optional, up to 500 characters. Where the change sits under a committed season, the popover names it; it never stops you. Discard drops what you typed. While you have typed and not saved, moving the window is refused.
A figure saved as Known one-off earns one offer where the save was: the forecast will still learn from those days unless the window is excluded. Exclude the window opens a New event form carrying the window, its channels and its variants; Not now leaves it. The reason list is fixed so the reasons can be counted: Event or promo not in the system points at declaring an event instead of typing a number.
After saving, read the updated figures and reopen the same selection to check them. Saving demand does not place an order or amend the agreed merchandise-plan target.
Handing a figure back to the system
On a period's menu, Revert to the system forecast removes the Manual forecast for that cell, with no reason asked, and the System forecast plans again. Until you do, a Manual forecast is kept through every run of the forecast: a sync rebuilds the System forecast underneath it and never overwrites what you typed.
Who may change the forecast
A seat that can write may save or revert a Manual forecast, on every plan. A read-only seat's save is refused. Where conversational Ask offers a forecast adjustment, it shows the selected products, account or channel, dates, operation and reason for confirmation before saving through the same editor. Its saved-result link opens that selection in Forecast. Declining the change leaves the forecast as it was.
What a Manual forecast changes downstream
Wherever Tightly plans from the forecast it takes your Manual forecast over the System forecast: the buy and replenishment, the stock-out dates and the inventory health tags all read the planned figure. They pick it up the next time they are worked out, after the next sync or Recalculate now. The accuracy record scores the System forecast, so a Manual forecast never moves Tightly's WMAPE or its comparison with the by-hand methods. Every save is recorded with its reason and note.
See Demand forecasting, The forecasting engine and Forecast accuracy.
Glossary line
A Manual forecast is a planner's own figure for one line and period, saved with one of six reasons, that the buy plans from instead of the System forecast.